We're All Winging It
If you think you're the exception... you're not.
The world is constructed entirely by people who are mostly winging it… and a lot of them don't realize that about themselves.
Welcome to my First Principles series.
I think all models of the world are wrong, but some are useful.
This is one of the ideas I default to when I have to make a decision with imperfect information.
We do okay.
I’ve personally commanded Bradley’s, generated (the only) critical research informing some business decisions at Amazon, built a few startups, and - more importantly - I know and interact with people living and working across pretty much the entire breadth of our economic, political, and military apparatuses.
And as it turns out…
22-year-old’s command the 18-year-old’s that drive those Bradley’s, it’s pretty standard that nobody really bothers to look at any data, startups are basically crossing a river by touching the stones, and there are a perspective-shattering amount of “yea I guess they’re fine?” types of people with hyperlocal spans of control that would make a despot blush.
Yet most things still turn out okay.
The Principle
Most people are winging it.
This doesn’t mean that people suck, that they can’t get better at stuff, or that there aren’t good reasons to weigh some people’s ideas more than others.
It just means that a huge, sorta terrifying number of the people you meet are:
Doing that job or activity for the first time
Doing the job or activity they’ve done before, but in a completely new environment or context
Not necessarily being thoughtful about what they’re doing, how they’re doing it, or why they’re doing it
This is triply true as the world gets faster and more volatile.
In all likelihood, you’re reading this essay on device that didn’t even exist as a category of products when you were born.
How can you possibly expect someone to know how to do all this stuff that wasn’t practicable during the majority of their education and development?
Of course they’re just winging it!
Anyway, if they’re all winging it and doing okay, you’ll probably do fine at whatever bold thing you’re trying to do.
And if we stick with it for long enough, maybe we’ll eventually get good at our cosplays 🫡
I hope this added value to your day.
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