Tailwinds not Headwinds

It's elementary my dear Watson

Sometimes You Should Just Keep Swimming (in the direction of Least Friction)

smallness by lilartsy

Some thoughts have more oomph than a tweet, but less heft than an essay.

When these pop up I’ll share them like this (if you please).

Good Advice on Picking Where You Play

Even if you are the smartest or most capable person in your industry, you can't outwork systemic decline. It's too powerful a force.

You will ultimately end up as the most competent loser in your field.

Conversely, you can be remarkably incompetent and still succeed in a sector experiencing the rising tide of systemic growth.

Now imagine what you could do if you were among the best in a growing industry!

So…this means exactly what it sounds like. Don’t fight losing career battles. It’s a lot easier to play a game when it’s on easy mode.

Honestly, you don’t even have to be first.

Being first is often a dumb risk to take. You can wait until you’re 10th or 100th, you just have to read the macro data humbly and be honest in spite of the sunk costs you paid to get to where you’re currently sitting.

There’s a reason why Carnegie Mellon CS undergrad’s take home an average AND median salary of about $120K. They’re sharp, but are they 50% smarter than the Physics undergrads who make $80K?

Kinda sus.

Feels tough to deny that they’re also in the right field and at the right time.

So don’t throw bad time after good.

If you think the music is slowing down around you, then bounce.

Find somewhere else where the ratio of reward per unit of effort is more favorable.

[Also if you think that somewhere else might be crypto then hit me up.]

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